The World Health Organization is beginning to see ‘worrying trends’ in the number of COVID cases, intensive care admissions and hospitalisations in the northern hemisphere as it enters the colder season. Data for France, Spain and the UK show that even though most new cases continue to be among the young, the virus is now spreading across all age groups. As public health experts predicted, school re-openings and more indoor activities are factors behind the recent trend reversal.

Halting a second wave could involve difficult trade-offs. Curbing the virus without new national lockdowns means limiting social mixing, but any additional public health measures will likely weigh further on economic activity. There is a risk that the market falls into the trap of dismissing local measures until they all add up and tilt the economic outlook.