Strong economic data in the eurozone raises pressure on the ECB

Strong data for German manufacturing orders in December did not immediately excite European equity markets. This data fits with a recent pattern of broadly positive numbers on the eurozone economy, especially with regard to leading indicators. Industrial production surged in November, although retail sales volumes fell in November and December (see Exhibit 1 below). Retail sales grew faster in the fourth quarter than in the third, but we may see some negative impact on consumer purchasing power via higher headline inflation.